As a mortgage broker, I’m often asked: “Is now a good time to buy, sell, or refinance?”  The truth is, Fall 2025 is shaping up to be a “wait and see” market across much of Canada. But that doesn’t mean you need to press pause.

Let’s break down what’s happening and how you can make smart mortgage decisions right now.

📉 What’s Happening with Prices?

While some major outlets like CREA and CMHC are predicting a 1.7–3.2% drop in average home prices nationally, Royal LePage remains the outlier, forecasting a 3.5–5% increase. So, what gives?

Well, it comes down to regional differences. Markets in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec are heating up, while Ontario and B.C. continue to cool. When you average it out, things appear stable or declining—but that doesn’t reflect every province’s reality.

💡 6 Key Factors Shaping This Fall’s Housing Market

1. Affordability Challenges

   With the average home price hovering near $680,000, many first-time buyers are being priced out. Higher down payments, longer amortizations, and more interest over time are pushing buyers to the sidelines.

2. U.S. Trade Disputes

   Nearly half of potential buyers are delaying their purchases due to tariff concerns. A resolution could trigger renewed market activity—but for now, it’s another reason for caution.

3. An Economic Cooldown

   Mild recession fears, slowing population growth, and rising unemployment are creating headwinds. Buyers are more hesitant and sellers are more negotiable.

4. Rental Market Shift

   A surge in condo completions has increased rental supply, giving renters more options and less urgency to buy.

5. New Build Slowdown

   Builders are responding to softer demand and increased costs by cutting production. The CMHC projects only 226,600 housing starts in 2025—a noticeable drop.

6. The Mortgage Rate Landscape

   Good news here: interest rates are down. After holding steady for a few months, the Bank of Canada just cut the policy rate to 2.50%, creating opportunities for fixed and variable mortgages that are more attractive than they’ve been in years.

🏠 Who Is Buying Right Now?

Even in a “wait and see” market, smart buyers are making moves.

• Millennials are re-entering urban areas as remote work fades, creating fresh demand for resale homes.

• Renewing homeowners are reassessing their needs—and many are taking the chance to right-size their home and lock in better financing.

With somewhere between 464,600 and 524,600 home sales projected for 2025, this is still an active market—just more cautious.

🔍 What This Means for You

• Buying a home?  Rates are better than they’ve been in months. If you’ve been on the fence, now could be your window.

• Refinancing or renewing?  You may be able to reduce your payments or restructure for your changing needs. Let’s talk through the options.

• Selling?  Resale homes are gaining traction, and strategic sellers can still make a solid move—especially if they’re working with the right plan.

👋 Let’s Talk Strategy

Even in a shifting market, you don’t have to navigate it alone. Whether you’re exploring your first mortgage, planning a move, or simply want a second opinion on your renewal offer, I’m here to help you make the right move at the right time.

Thinking of buying, refinancing, or renewing your mortgage? Let‘s talk about your options today.

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